Record Hormuz attacks; IRGC reports more tanker blasts

October is the worst month on record for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways, with 28 confirmed or reported incidents, according to data cited by Al-Monitor. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said it struck four oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and that three others hit mines west of the Strait, and later said two "violating" supertankers carrying more than 4.5 million barrels exploded after hitting a mine off the strait's southern coast. Informed Comment reported that US sources are skeptical of the mine claim, while Britain's Maritime Trade Operations said a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile after transiting the Strait.

Al-Monitor cited data compiled by a Washington-based think tank recording 28 confirmed or reported attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways in October and 113 since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28. The International Maritime Organization recorded 120 incidents in the strait and wider Middle East over the same period, and more than 30 supertankers were damaged, including 11 in October. Al Jazeera reported that Washington dismissed the IRGC's claim of seven tankers hit, while analysts warned that emergency oil stocks are at multidecade lows and Brent crude has climbed past $110 a barrel.

Middle East Eye reported that the IRGC Navy said two supertankers attempting an unauthorised route south of the Strait hit naval mines and that explosions and fires disabled their engine rooms, leaving them stranded; Fars cited an IRGC source as saying traffic by violating vessels had halted and navigation-aid systems on the vessels were destroyed. Asr-e Iran, ISNA and Khabar Online quoted the IRGC Navy as saying the two supertankers it described as violating exploded after hitting a mine off the strait's southern coast; Asr-e Iran said they carried more than 4.5 million barrels and were abandoned by their crews, and Khabar Online said the vessels' engine rooms failed after the blast. Donya-e-Eqtesad reported that Britain's Maritime Trade Operations said a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile after transiting the strait. Informed Comment reported that US sources are skeptical of the IRGC's mine claim and that there has been no evidence for some time that Iranian mines remain active in the strait.

In an analysis of how the war has changed since February 28, Al Jazeera reported that US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and security chief Ali Larijani without toppling the government, and that Khamenei's son Mojtaba succeeded him. It cited an Iranian government estimate of $270bn in direct and indirect war damage, official figures showing gross domestic product contracted 10.1 percent year-on-year from March 21 to June 20, a Congressional Budget Office estimate of $38bn in US Defense Department costs as of August 1, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll putting Trump's approval rating at 31 percent.

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